Before you start browsing listings or attending open houses, it helps to step back and look at the bigger picture. Where are interest rates headed? How much inventory is out there? What does affordability actually look like today? Getting a handle on these factors can help you make a decision that fits your finances and your future — not just the news cycle.

If you've been holding off on buying a home, you're not alone. A lot of people are asking whether the market has shifted enough to make a move. The honest answer? Some things have gotten better, but challenges remain. Let's break it down.

Where Do Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now?

Borrowing costs have come down somewhat from where they were this time last year, which is encouraging news for anyone who's been watching and waiting. That said, rates are still elevated enough to have a real impact on what you can comfortably afford each month.

What Drives Rate Movement?

Several forces push mortgage rates up or down:

  • Treasury bond yields — the 10-year Treasury is one of the biggest influences on how lenders price mortgages
  • The pace of inflation — when prices across the economy rise, rates tend to follow
  • Federal Reserve decisions — the Fed's actions on short-term rates ripple through the broader lending market
  • Buyer demand and investor behavior — market sentiment plays a role as well

Beyond the broader economy, your individual rate will depend on your credit profile, income, debt load, and the type of loan you choose. That's why I always encourage buyers to sit down with a reputable lender early — before you fall in love with a house — so you have a clear picture of your purchasing power.

What Does a Rate Drop Mean for Buyers?

When rates ease, it tends to bring more people off the sidelines and into the market. It can also motivate existing homeowners to look into refinancing. Even a half-point decrease can translate into meaningful savings over the life of a loan, so it's worth paying attention — but not worth trying to time perfectly.

The Affordability Challenge

Home prices aren't climbing at the frantic pace we saw a few years ago, but they haven't pulled back enough to make up for the income gap most buyers are dealing with. For many families — especially first-time buyers and those with moderate incomes — the math is still tight.

The good news is that there are lending programs specifically built to help. FHA loans, VA loans, USDA financing, and certain conventional products with lower down payment requirements can all make homeownership more reachable. A good lender will help you explore every option on the table.

Affordability Looks Different Depending on Where You Live

Not every market tells the same story. Some cities across the Midwest and parts of the South still offer much more favorable price-to-income ratios than major coastal metros. Here in the Dallas–Fort Worth area, we're in a solid position compared to places like Austin, Denver, or Southern California — but that doesn't mean it's easy. Pricing varies significantly from one neighborhood to the next, and understanding those local differences is critical when you're making the biggest financial decision of your life.

Don't Forget Property Taxes and Insurance

The sticker price of a home is just the starting point. Two of the most commonly underestimated costs are property taxes and homeowners insurance — and both have been climbing.

In Texas, property taxes are among the highest in the nation, and they can add hundreds of dollars to your monthly payment. On the insurance side, premiums have risen sharply in areas with storm and weather exposure. These aren't small details — they directly affect what you can afford, and they should be part of your financial planning from day one.

How Much Inventory Is Available?

Not enough. That's the short answer nationally, and it applies here in North Texas as well. The country is still dealing with a significant housing shortage, and new construction hasn't been able to close the gap. Permitting for new homes actually declined at the start of 2026, which suggests the supply of brand-new options may remain limited for a while.

On the resale side, many homeowners locked in mortgage rates in the 2–3% range during the pandemic and simply aren't willing to trade those for today's rates. This "rate lock-in effect" has kept a huge number of existing homes off the market and is one of the defining dynamics of the current landscape.

If you're open to it, homes that need some updating can be a smart play — particularly if you pair the purchase with a renovation loan that rolls improvement costs into your financing. It's a way to get into a strong neighborhood at a lower entry point.

Also, depending on your lifestyle, you may want to consider new construction.  This can be a smart move for first time home buyers who don't mind living in the suburbs with a good school system and larger yards.  There are many pro's to purchasing a new construction but with the right information, it's not a situation you want to walk into without the solid knowledge of a Realtor®.  I've closed on a few new constructions in 2026 and the buying process was different on each one.

What's Happening with Sales Volume?

Transaction activity remains well below historical norms. Existing home sales have fallen to levels we haven't seen in roughly three decades, largely because both buyers and sellers are feeling squeezed — buyers by affordability and sellers by the reluctance to give up their low rates.

One interesting trend: more buyers are now looking outside their current city than they were before the pandemic. Dallas–Fort Worth continues to attract significant relocation interest from across the country, which keeps demand steady in our market even when national numbers are soft. If you're selling here, that's a tailwind. If you're buying, it means competition from out-of-state purchasers is something to be aware of.

So… Is Now the Right Time to Buy?

There's no single right answer. Rates are better than they were but still meaningful. Prices have stabilized but haven't dropped. Inventory is limited but not nonexistent.

Here's what I tell my clients: stop trying to time the market and start focusing on your own readiness. No one — not economists, not analysts, not your neighbor — can tell you exactly where rates or prices will be six months from now. What you can control is your financial position, your goals, and your timeline.

If owning a home is part of your plan, the cost of waiting for a "perfect" market is often greater than the cost of buying in an imperfect one. The right home at the right terms for your family is always a good decision.

I'm here when you're ready. Whether you're buying your first home, relocating to the Dallas–Fort Worth area, or making a move up, I'll help you navigate every step with confidence.  

 

Arnold LaLande | Arnold LaLande Realty Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate,  www.arnoldlalande.com